Saturday, May 20, 2017

Gold: GATA & James Turk with His “Smoking Gun”

The DJIA (Dow Jones) and its step sum below peaked on March 1st of this year, after which the venerable Dow saw heavy selling. The collapsing step sum shows us that. But the price trend of the Dow Jones has weathered the selling better than expected.

I am about ready to declare the Dow Jones and its step sum is forming a Bull box, but not just yet.

What makes this a bull box? Historically, the price trend is a better predictor of future market trends than is a price series’ step sum. Think of the price trend (Blue Plot) as the market’s reality, and its step sum (Red Plot) an indicator of market sentiment. A step-sum box (either bull or bear) identifies those times when a market’s emotions are out of phase with a market’s reality.

Right now, the market’s reality for the Dow Jones looks bullish as its step sum collapses under the weight of day after day declines.

Usually, these bull boxes terminate as daily advances begin overwhelming declines, causing the step sum plot to reverse upward, which then results in a nice advance in the price trend. Should that happen for the Dow Jones below, my readers won’t need me to tell them the bull box is closed (terminated). That could very well happen here. In a best case scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised seeing the Dow Jones over 22K by mid-June, maybe before.



Not all bull boxes resolve themselves in the bull’s favor.

In other words, they fail. In the chart below, gold and its step sum have seen three bull boxes form in the past two years, and all three of them have failed. It’s very unusual seeing so many bull boxes form in a market during a two year period.

Seeing all three of them fail is even more unusual.



But if one is going to be a bull in the precious metals markets, one has to realize that the government and its regulators, as well as the global central banking cartel, are on the other side of the trade. So it’s not unusual seeing strange things happen in the market, the least of which are the three failed bull boxes above.

Now we wait to see what happens.

Can the “policy makers” take gold down below its lows of March 9th ($1,199), or down to $1,125 from last December? I don’t think they can. But if they do, they’ll once again provide another excellent opportunity to purchase gold and silver.

Here’s gold’s and the Dow Jones’ step sum and 15 count table. The price of gold was down every day this week. Its 15 count is down by six from last Friday. That’s a lot of selling pressure. But seeing the price of gold down by only $30 proves the bulls are only retreating, not running away in a panic – at least not yet.

The “policy makers” aren’t finished with the gold bulls. But if the gold bears continue their attack on the bulls as we see below, they’ll become exhausted in the next two or three weeks. That’s when we will see what the bulls can do; hopefully something impressive.

Ideally, I’d like the current selling to drive gold’s 15 count down to -9, or lower as the bulls successfully defend the lows of last March ($1,199). That would create a good base from which the gold market could make some really solid gains in the months to come.

Looking at the Dow Jones side of the table below, since March 31st, we see exactly this when it had a 15 count of -9. But as seen in the Dow’s step sum chart above, we’re still waiting for the bulls to do something impressive with the Dow Jones. So far the bulls have had only two days with a nice advance (April 24th & 25th).



Monday, May 15, 2017

James Turk: Gold, Silver and the Coming Economic Crisis


Over the past three weeks, approximately 11 trading days, silver has suffered one of the longest downward spirals in a great many years and some have even argued this is the longest ever. I try not to look a gift horse in the mouth and simply use this manipulated beating to acquire more money at a more favorable exchange rate. Some people call it the “price” of silver, but in doing so the monetary history of silver is discredited and wiped from memory. This has to change; but I digress.

I sat down with James Turk, Founder, GoldMoney, to find out what exactly is going on with silver, gold and our current state of monetary change. Central banks, the world over, have pushed economies, both large and small, to the brink of collapse. The monetary magic that has been foisted upon the world is beginning to unravel. Fiat currency, created from nothing and assigned a value, will return to it’s intrinsic value of zero; history has proven this time and again. Gold and silver are still the only money that has survived and stood the test of time. Time will prove this be the case once again.

If you don’t believe me ask anyone in the Eastern world which has true value – their government issued currency or the families gold horde? Ask yourself this – for what purpose has China and Russia been adding gold to their official gold holdings? Is it to create more jewelry, more trinkets or for the purpose of reintroducing gold to the monetary system? What about all the physical gold that has been passing through the Shanghai Gold Exchange? Are the citizens, companies and possibly other sovereign nations acquiring near record amounts of gold because it has no value?

This is to say nothing of what is happening in India. The government of India and the latest scheme to separate the people from their gold, has not only failed miserably, it is now creating a massive gold run in the country. The past two months has seen an exponential rise in the volume of gold entering the country through official channels. India is well known as the gold smuggling capital of the world, so the actual volume of physical gold moving into India could be much higher than what is officially reported.

This brings us to the BRICS nations and more specifically Russia and China. Both nations have agreed to open a shared gold market in their capital cities to help facilitate gold acquisitions for India, Brazil and South Africa. As these nations continue to acquire more gold we have to circle back to my earlier question – for what purpose is all this gold being acquired? Let’s not forget the nations along the New Silk Road (One Belt/One Road) are all acquiring gold as it will be one of the trade items.

What I learned a long time ago is if you wanted to be wealthy a person should act and do as a wealthy person. In this case we have entire nations whose wealth is rapidly surpassing that of our own. The soon to be new “middle class” will be in countries like China, Russia and India. These “wealthy people” are all acquiring gold. Why would I stand idly by and not “act as if”?

Mr. Turk does a masterful job of putting it altogether and delivering a power-pack 20 minute show.

- Source, Gold Seek

Friday, May 5, 2017

Either Way The Gold Price Soars

They either fail to deliver, which will send the price of gold soaring as people everywhere move out of paper representations of gold into physical metal, or they cover their shorts by buying physical metal in a tight market already starved of physical metal, which would also send the price of gold soaring.

I’ve mentioned before that one of these days leading into option expiry, the delta-hedgers are going to be forced to scramble for cover. We are getting closer to that moment, so we need to start thinking about June contracts expiring at the end of May. The clue will be to watch how the spot price compares to June delivery and whether a deep backwardation develops, which brings me back to silver.

As if all of this about gold wasn’t bullish enough, there is the obvious strength in silver. The shorts can’t get it below $18. It is solid as a rock, so we may see a short squeeze in silver when the May futures go to first notice day and the May options expire at the end of this month.

- Source, King World News

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Gold Market Set Up For A Mammoth Short Squeeze

But if my interpretation is correct, gold is getting set up for a potentially mammoth short squeeze. My interpretation of this data is that the shorts are stuck. They were not able to deliver everything the longs wanted. So the shorts did the best they could under the circumstances. Unable to deliver, they rolled their short positions forward.

So the demand for physical gold by strong hands who want to buy in size is outstripping available metal, which ties into one of the key points in your excellent interview with Andrew Maguire this weekend. Could these strong hands be the sovereign buyers that Andrew referred to?

This EFP activity also ties into another point Andrew made in his interview. The gold price in the physical market is increasingly being set in China, the rest of Asia and the Middle East. Consequently, the power of the gold price manipulators who use paper is diminishing. The manipulators are fighting this loss of power by trying to delay the delivery of the physical gold they are obligated to deliver. They are between a rock and a hard place.

- Source, James Turk via King World News

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Paper Shorts Are Scrambling

But here is what I find really astonishing, Eric. Look at all the June EFPs. And look at how the April EFPs were declining over the week while the June EFPs were rising. It means that the shorts were unable to deliver on the April contracts, which would have required delivering the metal last week, before the last April contracts expired. The shorts didn’t have the metal, so instead they promised the longs to deliver in June, no doubt with price concessions to the longs to sweeten the deal to get the longs to accept the risk of waiting two more months for delivery.

Here’s another point worth thinking about. In normal markets the shorts who are obligated to deliver physical metal do so as soon as possible at the beginning of the delivery month for two reasons. First, by delivering metal on the first day, they don’t pay storage charges for the rest of the month. Second, the sooner they deliver, the sooner they get paid for the metal they are selling.

It used to be that EFPs were mainly used to sort out a small number of positions at month end, but last week’s EFP volume was huge. It was 111 tonnes, which is about two weeks of annual production. That is a huge volume, and the fact that this activity is taking place at the end of the month means the shorts are trying to put off delivery as long as possible because they don’t have metal.

I need to bring in here a word of caution, Eric, to keep our mind from imagining what could unfold in the weeks and months ahead. Using Comex data is like trying to figure out what an elephant looks like by just grabbing a foot. There may be other interpretations of this EFP data, which is only giving us a brief, limited look under the hood of the bullion dealers.

- Source, King World News

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Gold Shortsellers Ran Into a Wall of Buyers

They then tried a second time to push gold under $1240 when New York opened. But the selling in the paper market by the price manipulators was hit by a wave of buying. The buying continued throughout Friday, and gold actually closed near the highs for the day, up $2.30 from the day before. It was another sign of real strength. To back this up, here is the third point I want to make about gold, which provides some solid evidence that I find quite amazing.

There is a little-known feature offered by the Comex called EFPs, which is short-hand for Exchange of Futures for Physicals. These are transactions in which a Comex futures contract is exchanged for an offsetting position in the physical market. These transactions are done off the Comex in privately negotiated deals.

Here’s an example of how it normally works. Let’s assume you want to take delivery of an April futures contract, and the firm that sold you the contract doesn’t have the metal in the Comex vaults. So the short calls you up and agrees to deliver the metal to you in another vault, at a price and on the terms the two of you negotiate.

Given that the short does not want a failure to deliver, the short will often make a concession in the price or offer other favorable terms to get the long to accept. Now let’s look at what happened last week. The following table shows the EFP transactions on the Comex.

First, this EFP activity explains why open interest dropped by 45,471 contracts last week. With that kind of selling pressure, why didn’t the price manipulators drive gold below $1,240? It’s because the open interest did not disappear from selling by weak longs. Rather it disappeared because the longs are strong hands who took delivery – or promises to deliver in the future – through EFPs. The 35,843 EFPs last week were a staggering 79% of the open interest decline.

- Source, James Turk via King World News, Read More Here

Friday, April 21, 2017

James Turk: A Massive Short Squeeze Is About To Send Gold Skyrocketing

First, despite all the pushing and shoving of the gold price last week, it only dropped 90¢ by Friday’s close. That is an impressive performance. Silver actually closed up 51¢ for the week, which I will get to in a moment, after we cover gold.

Second, gold came out unscathed from the battle on Friday, which was also the end of the quarter. We often see quarter-end window dressing by the price manipulators because a low price makes the losses on their short positions look more palatable. But that gambit didn’t work for them the way it used to.

On Friday gold was pushed all the way down to $1,240 during thin Asian trading, which was a perfect set up to scare and shake-out weak-handed longs, and also to get as many call options as possible to expire out of the money. But buyers appeared at that $1,240 level.

- Source, James Turk via KWN


Monday, March 27, 2017

Pierre Jovanovic Interview with James Turk in Paris


Pierre Jovanovic talks to James Turk about John Law, the Mississippi Bubble and how John Law duped the French people and the French Regent into buying his shares and allowing his Bank to issue bank notes. They explain how the whole experiment blew up in just 5 year and the terrible consequences for the whole of France. They then talk about the repetition of the fiat money experiment during the French Revolution and how that lasted only 7 years: from 1789 to 1796, with even more dire consequences for the French people. They also talk about current day similarities and lessons to be learnt.


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